tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: OH 5187 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5187 PSA GRR 06:12 DCA 08:07 11% 5% 1.8% no record
AA 5039 American flown by PSA Flight history → GRR 13:54 DCA 15:50 25% 9% 1.7% 56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 2h 53m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 48m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:07 → ATL 08:11DL 2453 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 20m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 3h 30m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 58m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 2h 23m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 6h 35m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161 1h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 4h 53m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:46 → ORD 08:51UA 1113 2h 02m Chicago ORD 10:53 → DCA 13:53UA 202 5h 07m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → GRR 11:52 → LGA 14:01AA 4498 · flown by Republic 3h 12m New York LGA 17:13 → DCA 18:44AA 4736 · flown by Republic 6h 52m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic 3h 00m Newark EWR 11:00 → DCA 12:23UA 4172 · flown by GoJet 6h 18m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GRR 11:38 → ORD 11:58UA 4583 · flown by GoJet 47m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 4h 14m 58% 42%
AmericanDetails → GRR 17:24 → DFW 19:14AA 310 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 35m 49% 26%
UnitedDetails → GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest 57m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160 4h 29m 46% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON