Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2648 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2648 GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 1969 GRR 15:45 → DEN 16:38 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2648 United Flight history →	GRR 08:00	DEN 08:54	8%	3%	0.7%	77%
UA 2745 United Flight history →	GRR 15:37	DEN 16:30	30%	10%	0.9%	73%
F9 1247 Frontier Flight history →	GRR 16:15	DEN 17:17	30%	11%	1.0%	84%worse than usual
WN 1969 Southwest	GRR 15:45	DEN 16:38	31%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON