Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 5846 GRR 15:59 → DTW 17:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3925 GRR 08:21 → DTW 09:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5846 Republic	GRR 15:59	DTW 17:02	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 5847 Republic	GRR 19:35	DTW 20:41	10%	6%	1.0%	no record
OO 3925 SkyWest	GRR 08:21	DTW 09:21	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 4885 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 05:30	DTW 06:30	15%	7%	1.2%	85%
DL 5473 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 12:10	DTW 13:13	29%	10%	1.9%	71%
DL 5511 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 17:55	DTW 18:59	30%	15%	6.1%	70%
DL 5390 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 14:35	DTW 15:38	33%	13%	0.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON