tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, OO 6013 at 06:45, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6013 SkyWest GRR 06:45 IAH 08:49 12% 8% 1.4% no record
UA 4036 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record GRR 17:07 IAH 19:10 32% 13% 0.0% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Grand Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 7h 14m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 2h 10m Detroit DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043 6h 07m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic 2h 53m Newark EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 8h 33m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → GRR 07:02 → PHL 09:02AA 5980 · flown by Piedmont 4h 00m Philadelphia PHL 13:02 → IAH 15:39AA 2486 9h 37m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 8h 09m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 7h 05m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:07 → ATL 08:11DL 2453 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 07m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 6h 40m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Chicago ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813 5h 34m 62% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON