Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:07, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GRR 06:07 → ATL 08:11DL 2453	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	4h 50m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	GRR 05:56 → DTW 06:58DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MCO 11:23DL 1455	5h 27m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	GRR 07:00 → MSP 07:32DL 2913	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208	6h 40m	97%	81%
United Details →	GRR 06:05 → EWR 08:00UA 3718 · flown by Republic	1h 13m Newark	EWR 09:13 → MCO 12:04UA 486	5h 59m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	GRR 07:53 → ATL 09:56DL 2161	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 07m	95%	75%
United Details →	GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648	1h 16m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	94%	72%
American Details →	GRR 17:33 → CLT 19:34AA 1685	2h 55m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879	6h 44m	100%	66%
Delta Details →	GRR 12:51 → ATL 14:52DL 2547	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	6h 57m	99%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 20:21 → MCO 00:09 +1UA 617	5h 44m	72%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON