Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3520 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–49%.

Safest bet that day YX 3520 GRR 07:16 → ORD 07:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5516 GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3520 Republic	GRR 07:16	ORD 07:41	11%	4%	1.4%	no record
OO 5674 SkyWest	GRR 05:02	ORD 05:07	12%	6%	1.4%	no record
OO 4778 SkyWest	GRR 05:45	ORD 05:50	12%	6%	1.3%	no record
MQ 3481 Envoy	GRR 05:44	ORD 05:43	13%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 2386 American	GRR 07:13	ORD 07:21	17%	6%	1.4%	no record
UA 1113 United Flight history →	GRR 08:46	ORD 08:51	19%	5%	0.8%	72%
OO 5709 SkyWest	GRR 10:00	ORD 10:05	21%	7%	1.7%	no record
OO 6365 SkyWest	GRR 10:32	ORD 10:37	22%	7%	1.8%	no record
OO 5329 SkyWest	GRR 11:59	ORD 12:04	29%	8%	2.0%	no record
YX 4780 Republic	GRR 14:41	ORD 14:53	34%	11%	2.3%	no record
UA 2138 United Flight history →	GRR 13:56	ORD 14:05	37%	12%	1.9%	70%
AA 4729 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GRR 19:54	ORD 20:37	37%	19%	5.1%	67%
UA 2783 United	GRR 15:45	ORD 16:02	41%	19%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3455 Envoy	GRR 16:06	ORD 16:11	47%	17%	5.6%	no record
UA 5516 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GRR 18:25	ORD 18:48	49%	23%	5.7%	51%
UA 4583 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 11:38	ORD 11:58	27%	12%	2.2%	73%
UA 4597 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	GRR 15:37	ORD 15:56	36%	12%	7.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON