Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3018 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 3018 GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 2539 GSO 16:15 → ATL 17:38 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3018 Delta Flight history →	GSO 05:25	ATL 06:38	4%	3%	0.8%	96%
DL 3004 Delta Flight history →	GSO 06:35	ATL 07:56	8%	3%	0.9%	94%
DL 3173 Delta Flight history →	GSO 10:14	ATL 11:31	9%	3%	0.7%	94%
DL 3052 Delta Flight history →	GSO 12:20	ATL 13:49	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 1085 Delta Flight history →	GSO 08:14	ATL 09:37	10%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 3060 Delta Flight history →	GSO 14:59	ATL 16:20	14%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 3050 Delta Flight history →	GSO 18:35	ATL 20:09	15%	6%	0.8%	74%
DL 2539 Delta Flight history →	GSO 16:15	ATL 17:38	17%	6%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON