Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1078 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1078 GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3133 GSO 18:48 → CLT 19:52 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 1078 American Flight history →	GSO 05:16	CLT 06:09	9%	5%	1.1%	89%
AA 3965 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:24	CLT 08:25	14%	3%	1.5%	96%
MQ 3942 Envoy	GSO 19:33	CLT 20:26	21%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 3133 American	GSO 18:48	CLT 19:52	33%	14%	0.9%	no record
AA 5793 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 09:00	CLT 10:21	8%	1%	0.0%	92%
AA 5796 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 12:42	CLT 13:49	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
AA 5789 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 14:35	CLT 15:44	18%	13%	0.0%	82%
AA 5797 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 16:11	CLT 17:20	30%	13%	0.0%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON