tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4783 at 10:38 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4783 Republic GSO 10:38 DCA 12:01 10% 3% 1.0% no record
OH 5140 PSA GSO 19:22 DCA 20:42 29% 15% 3.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 6h 02m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:00 → DTW 07:45DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 28m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 09:13 → DCA 10:41AA 3043 5h 25m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 6h 11m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:17 → ORD 08:22AA 3673 · flown by Envoy 2h 13m Chicago ORD 10:35 → DCA 13:41AA 1200 6h 24m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:14 → ATL 11:31DL 3173 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 4h 42m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → GSO 10:00 → LGA 11:36DL 5125 · flown by Endeavor 3h 04m New York LGA 14:40 → DCA 16:19DL 5709 · flown by Republic 6h 19m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → GSO 12:20 → ATL 13:49DL 3052 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 6h 17m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25AA 3965 · flown by Envoy 48m Charlotte CLT 09:13 → DCA 10:41AA 3043 3h 17m 41% 35%
AmericanDetails → GSO 18:52 → ORD 20:12AA 4118 · flown by Envoy 53m Chicago ORD 21:05 → DCA 00:19 +1AA 535 5h 27m 3% 2%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON