Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2846 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2846 GSO 07:00 → DFW 09:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2242 GSO 18:21 → DFW 20:24 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2846 American Flight history →	GSO 07:00	DFW 09:01	9%	6%	2.0%	84%
AA 3886 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 13:49	DFW 15:53	15%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	GSO 18:21	DFW 20:24	28%	12%	1.6%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 07:40 → DFW 08:54DL 839	4h 29m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON