Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: G7 4439 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–32%.

Safest bet that day G7 4439 GSO 06:00 → EWR 07:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3445 GSO 19:00 → EWR 20:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4439 GoJet	GSO 06:00	EWR 07:40	13%	3%	1.7%	no record
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	GSO 14:48	EWR 16:49	31%	11%	2.0%	69%
YX 3445 Republic	GSO 19:00	EWR 20:47	32%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON