Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4704 at 06:18 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4704 GSO 06:18 → LGA 08:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4574 GSO 17:42 → LGA 19:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4704 Republic	GSO 06:18	LGA 08:05	4%	2%	1.4%	no record
AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 11:18	LGA 13:05	12%	6%	1.9%	45%
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSO 17:42	LGA 19:36	19%	10%	1.8%	63%
DL 5125 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 10:00	LGA 11:36	15%	8%	5.4%	85%
DL 5439 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSO 18:32	LGA 20:20	53%	30%	30.2%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON