Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 3640 at 07:02, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3640 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:02	MIA 09:10	13%	5%	1.3%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSO 05:25 → ATL 06:38DL 3018	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 32m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:25 → DTW 08:04DL 5088 · flown by Endeavor	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 03m	96%	76%
United Details →	GSO 06:00 → IAD 07:18UA 4251 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 35m	95%	76%
American Details →	GSO 05:16 → CLT 06:09AA 1078	56m Charlotte	CLT 07:05 → MIA 09:12AA 770	3h 56m	89%	71%
Delta Details →	GSO 06:35 → ATL 07:56DL 3004	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 32m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	GSO 18:35 → ATL 20:09DL 3050	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 20m	98%	69%
Delta Details →	GSO 16:15 → ATL 17:38DL 2539	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	7h 24m	98%	66%
American Details →	GSO 07:24 → CLT 08:25AA 3965 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	5h 47m	100%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GSO 18:21 → DFW 20:24AA 2242	1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:29 → MIA 01:23 +1AA 9791	7h 02m	72%	41%
American Details →	GSO 14:21 → ORD 15:36AA 4144 · flown by Envoy	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 16:43 → MIA 21:07AA 2323	6h 46m	75%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON