Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3673 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 3673 GSO 07:17 → ORD 08:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 4118 GSO 18:52 → ORD 20:13 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3673 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 07:17	ORD 08:23	11%	4%	1.3%	89%
G7 4437 GoJet	GSO 06:29	ORD 07:28	13%	3%	1.6%	no record
G7 4193 GoJet	GSO 10:45	ORD 11:44	19%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 14:21	ORD 15:36	30%	13%	4.3%	83%worse than usual
G7 4387 GoJet	GSO 17:58	ORD 19:05	36%	17%	3.6%	no record
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSO 18:52	ORD 20:13	38%	18%	4.5%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON