Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3028 at 05:44 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3028 GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest DL 3095 GSP 17:16 → ATL 18:22 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3028 Delta Flight history →	GSP 05:44	ATL 06:43	5%	3%	0.7%	98%
DL 1146 Delta Flight history →	GSP 06:45	ATL 07:48	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1619 Delta Flight history →	GSP 08:52	ATL 09:58	7%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	GSP 11:42	ATL 12:45	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	GSP 10:03	ATL 11:04	8%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	GSP 13:29	ATL 14:36	12%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 1273 Delta Flight history →	GSP 15:06	ATL 16:13	14%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	GSP 17:16	ATL 18:22	22%	5%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON