Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2864 at 16:22, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2864 United	GSP 16:22	DEN 17:47	26%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Greenville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GSP 07:10 → DTW 08:57DL 876	3h 45m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	8h 35m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	GSP 05:44 → ATL 06:43DL 3028	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 21m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	GSP 08:52 → ATL 09:58DL 1619	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 08m	99%	78%
American Details →	GSP 07:00 → CLT 08:16AA 5654 · flown by PSA	3h 40m Charlotte	CLT 11:56 → DEN 13:36AA 1662	8h 36m	98%	78%
United Details →	GSP 17:10 → IAH 18:45UA 4038 · flown by Mesa	3h 24m Houston	IAH 22:09 → DEN 23:34UA 685	8h 24m	99%	78%
United Details →	GSP 07:00 → IAH 08:33UA 4049 · flown by Mesa	4h 00m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	9h 17m	97%	76%
American Details →	GSP 06:30 → MIA 08:26AA 3806 · flown by Envoy	1h 26m Miami	MIA 09:52 → DEN 12:02AA 2436	7h 32m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	GSP 10:03 → ATL 11:04DL 3089	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 55m	98%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GSP 18:55 → DTW 20:48DL 5090 · flown by Endeavor	48m Detroit	DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644	5h 49m	58%	41%
American Details →	GSP 14:29 → PHL 16:29AA 6132 · flown by Piedmont	1h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 17:30 → DEN 19:45AA 3158	7h 16m	67%	36%
United Details →	GSP 17:43 → ORD 19:00UA 5524 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → DEN 21:59UA 329	6h 16m	71%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON