Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 3806 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3806 GSP 06:30 → MIA 08:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2039 GSP 11:15 → MIA 13:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3806 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 06:30	MIA 08:26	14%	4%	1.0%	89%
AA 9739 American	GSP 02:05	MIA 04:20	19%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 9740 American	GSP 01:05	MIA 03:20	20%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 2039 American	GSP 11:15	MIA 13:18	31%	8%	5.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON