Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 49 at 23:10, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 49 Alaska	HNL 23:10	ANC 07:31	21%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 19:06 → ANC 21:39AS 582	12h 40m	99%	65%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → SEA 20:13AS 267	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 22:51 → ANC 01:23 +1AS 703	11h 59m	95%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	49m Portland	PDX 21:39 → ANC 00:34 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon	10h 12m	56%	42%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → SEA 20:13AS 267	47m Seattle	SEA 21:00 → ANC 23:31AS 711	10h 07m	53%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON