Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 09:27, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:27 → SFO 17:31UA 1176	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 20:47 → BUR 22:19UA 794	9h 52m	99%	66%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 18:02 → BUR 19:29UA 2001	9h 19m	95%	66%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 19:18 → BUR 21:53AS 727	11h 54m	100%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON