Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 09:27, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 383 United Flight history →	HNL 19:40	DEN 06:17	12%	3%	0.8%	90%
UA 1806 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	DEN 08:17	14%	4%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:27 → SFO 17:31UA 1176	3h 29m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → DEN 00:47 +1UA 301	11h 20m	99%	75%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 18:56 → DEN 22:44UA 2436	11h 34m	96%	72%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610	11h 15m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	3h 29m Seattle	SEA 19:00 → DEN 22:45AS 310	11h 46m	99%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON