Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6 American Flight history →	HNL 17:39	DFW 06:00	17%	6%	1.0%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	3h 20m Los Angeles	LAX 18:53 → DFW 23:59DL 420	11h 59m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 17:57 → DFW 23:46AS 542	11h 47m	97%	66%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 24m San Francisco	SFO 16:39 → DFW 22:19UA 1336	10h 09m	93%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON