Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via LAX, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157	2h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 23:36 → IAD 07:40 +1UA 418	12h 40m	93%	76%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	1h 49m San Francisco	SFO 17:04 → IAD 01:24 +1UA 1453	12h 14m	93%	75%
United Details →	HNL 13:22 → SFO 21:18UA 650	2h 02m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:49 +1UA 2111	12h 27m	96%	74%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	1h 11m Los Angeles	LAX 16:43 → IAD 00:59 +1UA 1506	11h 59m	93%	74%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → SEA 20:13AS 267	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 22:01 → IAD 05:32 +1AS 367	12h 08m	90%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON