Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via LAX, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 252 United Flight history →	HNL 20:13	IAH 08:46	22%	6%	0.9%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 19:18 → IAH 00:37 +1UA 1680	12h 37m	97%	75%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 12m San Francisco	SFO 18:27 → IAH 00:25 +1UA 2464	12h 15m	95%	74%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	3h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287	11h 59m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	2h 04m Seattle	SEA 17:35 → IAH 23:45AS 240	11h 46m	97%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON