Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 11:24, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 650 Delta Flight history →	HNL 15:50	JFK 07:30	16%	5%	1.3%	92%
AS 830 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:09	JFK 06:55	26%	5%	1.0%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 6 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → SEA 20:13AS 267	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	14h 14m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → JFK 07:03 +1DL 676	12h 28m	96%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON