Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1956 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1956 HNL 09:45 → KOA 10:49 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1138 HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1956 Southwest	HNL 09:45	KOA 10:49	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1018 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:00	KOA 06:46	4%	1%	1.4%	93%
AS 1038 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:30	KOA 08:32	7%	3%	1.4%	93%
AS 1028 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:13	KOA 07:59	7%	3%	1.4%	95%
AS 1048 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:01	KOA 09:03	7%	3%	1.4%	94%
WN 1421 Southwest	HNL 20:35	KOA 21:39	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1964 Southwest	HNL 17:15	KOA 18:19	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1058 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:35	KOA 09:37	9%	3%	1.4%	86%
WN 940 Southwest	HNL 13:20	KOA 14:24	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1068 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:09	KOA 10:11	11%	3%	1.4%	85%
AS 1078 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:03	KOA 11:05	14%	4%	1.4%	79%
AS 1168 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:45	KOA 19:31	16%	5%	1.2%	88%
AS 1088 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:04	KOA 12:06	16%	5%	1.4%	71%
AS 1098 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:35	KOA 12:37	16%	4%	1.4%	74%
AS 1158 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:30	KOA 18:16	17%	5%	1.2%	80%
AS 1118 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:53	KOA 13:55	17%	4%	1.3%	77%
AS 1128 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:29	KOA 14:31	17%	5%	1.4%	72%
AS 1108 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:01	KOA 13:03	18%	5%	1.5%	74%
AS 1178 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:03	KOA 21:50	18%	5%	1.2%	84%
AS 1148 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:26	KOA 17:12	19%	5%	1.3%	79%
AS 1138 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:14	KOA 16:01	20%	5%	1.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON