Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 422 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 422 HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 557 HNL 15:22 → LAX 23:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 422 Delta Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:33	10%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 1221 United Flight history →	HNL 07:00	LAX 15:32	11%	5%	0.8%	90%
DL 658 Delta Flight history →	HNL 21:30	LAX 06:00	16%	5%	0.8%	93%
DL 427 Delta Flight history →	HNL 12:35	LAX 21:00	17%	5%	0.7%	80%
WN 1427 Southwest	HNL 21:25	LAX 05:32	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1169 United Flight history →	HNL 21:40	LAX 06:03	18%	5%	0.8%	92%
AA 144 American Flight history →	HNL 20:30	LAX 05:02	22%	6%	0.6%	87%
UA 1157 United Flight history →	HNL 13:00	LAX 21:23	22%	7%	0.8%	83%
AS 804 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 20:39	LAX 05:00	24%	5%	0.7%	79%
AS 810 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:00	LAX 16:20	24%	4%	0.7%	70%
AA 164 American Flight history →	HNL 15:32	LAX 00:12	25%	7%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
AS 9681 Alaska	HNL 17:31	LAX 01:47	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 162 American Flight history →	HNL 13:46	LAX 22:27	26%	8%	0.6%	81%
AS 878 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:03	LAX 19:34	27%	6%	0.7%	60%
AS 557 Alaska	HNL 15:22	LAX 23:30	32%	8%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 12:01 → KOA 13:03AS 1108	1h 15m Kailua/Kona	KOA 14:18 → LAX 22:19AS 561	7h 18m	94%	71%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:10 → OGG 10:52AS 1066	1h 27m Kahului	OGG 12:19 → LAX 20:22AS 981	7h 12m	97%	70%
Alaska Details →	HNL 12:37 → OGG 13:31AS 1096	1h 29m Kahului	OGG 15:00 → LAX 23:07AS 934	7h 30m	93%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON