Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1970 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1970 HNL 09:40 → LIH 10:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1093 HNL 13:50 → LIH 14:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1970 Southwest	HNL 09:40	LIH 10:36	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1043 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:13	LIH 10:07	10%	2%	1.3%	91%
WN 4195 Southwest	HNL 20:40	LIH 21:36	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1972 Southwest	HNL 17:20	LIH 18:16	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1053 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:51	LIH 10:45	10%	2%	1.3%	85%
AS 1013 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:10	LIH 07:50	10%	2%	1.3%	91%
AS 1033 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:33	LIH 09:14	11%	2%	1.3%	92%
AS 1023 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:52	LIH 08:32	13%	2%	1.3%	91%
WN 1499 Southwest	HNL 13:32	LIH 14:28	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1163 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:48	LIH 19:42	16%	4%	1.2%	83%
AS 1063 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:37	LIH 11:31	16%	3%	1.3%	82%
AS 1173 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:35	LIH 20:29	16%	4%	1.2%	79%
AS 1183 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:21	LIH 22:15	17%	3%	1.4%	96%worse than usual
AS 1153 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:08	LIH 19:02	18%	4%	1.2%	80%
AS 1073 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:21	LIH 12:15	22%	4%	1.3%	62%
AS 1143 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:15	LIH 18:09	22%	4%	1.2%	75%
AS 1133 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:33	LIH 17:27	23%	5%	1.2%	65%
AS 1113 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:19	LIH 16:13	24%	5%	1.4%	68%
AS 1103 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:39	LIH 15:33	24%	5%	1.4%	75%
AS 1123 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:55	LIH 16:49	24%	5%	1.4%	68%
AS 1083 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:09	LIH 14:03	28%	5%	1.5%	68%
AS 1093 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:50	LIH 14:44	29%	5%	1.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON