Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:10, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1968 Southwest	HNL 13:30	OAK 21:24	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 848 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:42	OAK 20:40	27%	5%	0.6%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033	3h 27m Lihue	LIH 12:41 → OAK 20:41AS 968	9h 08m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	3h 34m Kahului	OGG 12:17 → OAK 20:12AS 924	9h 10m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 16:44 → OAK 18:51AS 1328	8h 52m	89%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON