Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1978 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 1978 HNL 08:00 → OGG 08:56 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1116 HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1978 Southwest	HNL 08:00	OGG 08:56	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1523 Southwest	HNL 09:50	OGG 10:46	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1432 Southwest	HNL 20:32	OGG 21:28	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1983 Southwest	HNL 17:27	OGG 18:23	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1981 Southwest	HNL 14:01	OGG 14:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1982 Southwest	HNL 15:50	OGG 16:46	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1980 Southwest	HNL 12:23	OGG 13:19	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1026 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:00	OGG 07:40	11%	2%	0.9%	97%
AS 1046 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 08:02	OGG 08:43	11%	2%	0.9%	95%
AS 1056 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 09:18	OGG 10:12	12%	2%	0.9%	91%
AS 1036 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 07:26	OGG 08:06	13%	2%	0.9%	86%
AS 1416 Alaska	HNL 08:23	OGG 09:16	15%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1196 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 19:31	OGG 20:25	16%	4%	0.9%	85%
AS 1206 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 21:01	OGG 21:55	17%	4%	0.9%	81%
AS 1066 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:10	OGG 10:52	17%	3%	0.9%	79%
AS 1076 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 10:59	OGG 11:41	17%	3%	0.9%	84%
AS 1186 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 18:27	OGG 19:08	18%	4%	1.0%	78%
AS 1176 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 17:42	OGG 18:23	21%	4%	0.9%	82%
AS 1436 Alaska	HNL 16:05	OGG 16:58	21%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 1096 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:37	OGG 13:31	21%	4%	1.0%	79%
AS 1426 Alaska	HNL 12:16	OGG 13:09	22%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 1086 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	OGG 12:07	22%	3%	0.9%	75%
AS 1156 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 16:43	OGG 17:24	23%	5%	1.0%	70%
AS 1136 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:51	OGG 15:45	23%	4%	0.9%	65%
AS 1146 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 15:18	OGG 16:12	24%	5%	1.0%	71%
AS 1126 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:42	OGG 14:36	26%	4%	1.0%	72%
AS 1116 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:01	OGG 13:45	28%	5%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON