Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1988 at 20:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1988 HNL 20:55 → PHX 05:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 694 HNL 22:16 → PHX 07:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1988 Southwest	HNL 20:55	PHX 05:34	10%	3%	1.0%	no record
AS 836 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:51	PHX 20:38	18%	5%	0.6%	83%
AA 694 American Flight history →	HNL 22:16	PHX 07:15	22%	8%	2.0%	82%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	HNL 12:35 → LAX 21:00DL 427	1h 07m Los Angeles	LAX 22:07 → PHX 23:43DL 3827 · flown by SkyWest	8h 08m	88%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON