Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 884 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 884 HNL 08:10 → SAN 16:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 816 HNL 12:39 → SAN 21:07 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 884 Southwest	HNL 08:10	SAN 16:31	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1991 Southwest	HNL 21:58	SAN 06:53	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 827 Alaska	HNL 07:12	SAN 15:35	19%	4%	1.4%	no record
AS 93 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 22:00	SAN 06:21	25%	4%	1.4%	89%worse than usual
AS 816 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:39	SAN 21:07	31%	6%	1.3%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:01 → KOA 09:03AS 1048	1h 34m Kailua/Kona	KOA 10:37 → SAN 19:02AS 266	8h 01m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 08:33 → LIH 09:14AS 1033	1h 32m Lihue	LIH 10:46 → SAN 19:24AS 228	7h 51m	97%	75%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	55m Los Angeles	LAX 16:27 → SAN 17:25UA 582	7h 25m	88%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON