Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 440 at 22:47 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–43%.

Safest bet that day DL 440 HNL 22:47 → SEA 07:36 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 822 HNL 12:50 → SEA 21:34 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 440 Delta Flight history →	HNL 22:47	SEA 07:36	10%	4%	0.9%	94%
AS 90 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 06:59	SEA 15:31	14%	3%	1.0%	69%
DL 359 Delta Flight history →	HNL 13:07	SEA 22:05	14%	5%	0.9%	87%
AS 854 Alaska	HNL 21:23	SEA 06:23	23%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 900 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 23:20	SEA 08:00	31%	5%	1.0%	73%
AS 627 Alaska	HNL 14:35	SEA 23:09	32%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 267 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 11:24	SEA 20:13	33%	6%	1.0%	73%
AS 822 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:50	SEA 21:34	43%	6%	0.9%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 19:31 → OGG 20:25AS 1196	1h 15m Kahului	OGG 21:40 → SEA 06:17 +1AS 206	7h 46m	90%	70%
Alaska Details →	HNL 13:01 → OGG 13:45AS 1116	1h 30m Kahului	OGG 15:15 → SEA 23:59AS 244	7h 58m	94%	68%
Alaska Details →	HNL 10:10 → OGG 10:52AS 1066	2h 03m Kahului	OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25AS 930	8h 15m	100%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON