Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 373 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 373 HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 812 HNL 14:50 → SFO 22:51 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 373 United Flight history →	HNL 07:10	SFO 15:15	14%	6%	0.8%	90%
UA 1176 United Flight history →	HNL 09:27	SFO 17:30	15%	6%	0.8%	92%
UA 1346 United Flight history →	HNL 22:10	SFO 06:09	17%	5%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
AS 834 Alaska	HNL 00:01	SFO 08:08	20%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 650 United Flight history →	HNL 14:40	SFO 22:49	22%	7%	0.8%	83%
UA 1947 United Flight history →	HNL 14:06	SFO 22:09	24%	8%	0.8%	79%
AA 9730 American	HNL 17:10	SFO 01:41	25%	11%	2.0%	no record
AS 812 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 14:50	SFO 22:51	36%	10%	1.2%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046	1h 49m Kahului	OGG 10:32 → SFO 18:27AS 978	7h 25m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	HNL 13:30 → KOA 14:33AS 1128	1h 07m Kailua/Kona	KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48AS 404	7h 18m	87%	65%
Alaska Details →	HNL 13:47 → LIH 14:31AS 1083	1h 12m Lihue	LIH 15:43 → SFO 23:56AS 788	7h 09m	83%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON