Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 10:59, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1992 Southwest	HNL 08:15	SJC 16:13	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 839 Alaska	HNL 11:43	SJC 19:58	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	2h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 18:17 → SJC 19:32DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	9h 32m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:18 → OGG 10:12AS 1056	3h 11m Kahului	OGG 13:23 → SJC 21:19AS 954	9h 01m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	2h 14m Seattle	SEA 17:45 → SJC 19:56AS 1303	9h 57m	97%	61%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:04 → SEA 19:28AS 267	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 20:47 → SJC 22:59AS 403	8h 55m	83%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON