Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 11:04, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 357 Delta Flight history →	HNL 19:51	SLC 05:57	17%	5%	0.9%	84%
AS 715 Alaska	HNL 12:51	SLC 22:41	32%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:27 → SFO 17:31UA 1176	3h 23m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	10h 32m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	1h 32m Los Angeles	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	8h 58m	95%	66%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 45m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → SLC 22:13UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest	11h 03m	96%	64%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:04 → SEA 19:28AS 267	1h 16m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → SLC 23:46AS 669	8h 42m	81%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON