Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 09:27, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1994 Southwest	HNL 12:10	SMF 20:09	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 820 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 12:13	SMF 20:17	29%	7%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422	2h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 18:08 → SMF 19:41DL 3759 · flown by SkyWest	9h 41m	95%	77%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:51 → LIH 10:45AS 1053	3h 12m Lihue	LIH 13:57 → SMF 22:21AS 966	9h 30m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	HNL 09:18 → OGG 10:12AS 1056	3h 43m Kahului	OGG 13:55 → SMF 21:57AS 960	9h 39m	100%	70%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 13m San Francisco	SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest	9h 26m	95%	68%
United Details →	HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221	3h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 18:58 → SMF 20:38UA 2075	10h 38m	97%	68%
United Details →	HNL 09:27 → SFO 17:31UA 1176	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:59UA 1862	9h 32m	99%	63%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:24 → SEA 20:13AS 267	1h 42m Seattle	SEA 21:55 → SMF 23:48AS 722	9h 24m	89%	56%
Alaska Details →	HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 17:17 → SMF 19:04AS 764	9h 05m	97%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON