Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2002 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2002 HOU 05:30 → ATL 08:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1195 HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2002 Southwest	HOU 05:30	ATL 08:45	7%	2%	4.8%	no record
DL 2557 Delta Flight history →	HOU 06:00	ATL 09:05	8%	3%	2.6%	90%
WN 2611 Southwest	HOU 10:35	ATL 13:49	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	HOU 10:40	ATL 13:46	17%	3%	0.8%	88%
WN 2006 Southwest	HOU 20:35	ATL 23:44	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:32	27%	5%	0.8%	77%
WN 3355 Southwest	HOU 15:25	ATL 18:34	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	HOU 14:24	ATL 17:29	28%	4%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON