Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 462 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 462 Southwest	HOU 11:00	BHM 12:52	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 694 Southwest	HOU 20:30	BHM 22:22	28%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 10m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	5h 45m	93%	74%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:44 → BHM 14:40AA 3884 · flown by Envoy	5h 11m	91%	72%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	4h 30m	91%	71%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	5h 34m	93%	68%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:30 → DAL 13:40WN 26	1h 55m Dallas	DAL 15:35 → BHM 17:27WN 1397	4h 57m	96%	66%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:05 → DAL 20:19WN 52	1h 16m Dallas	DAL 21:35 → BHM 23:27WN 1280	4h 22m	83%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON