Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2029 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2029 HOU 07:19 → BNA 09:19 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4637 HOU 14:20 → BNA 16:20 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2029 Southwest	HOU 07:19	BNA 09:19	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 187 Southwest	HOU 10:15	BNA 12:15	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3146 Southwest	HOU 12:50	BNA 14:50	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4679 Southwest	HOU 20:25	BNA 22:25	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2014 Southwest	HOU 18:27	BNA 20:27	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4637 Southwest	HOU 14:20	BNA 16:20	25%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON