Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4362 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4362 HOU 05:21 → BWI 09:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1821 HOU 17:15 → BWI 21:17 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4362 Southwest	HOU 05:21	BWI 09:39	7%	1%	4.8%	no record
WN 2445 Southwest	HOU 10:08	BWI 14:26	18%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 179 Southwest	HOU 12:45	BWI 17:03	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4936 Southwest	HOU 20:35	BWI 00:51	28%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 1821 Southwest	HOU 17:15	BWI 21:17	36%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON