Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 503 at 14:05, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 503 Southwest	HOU 14:05	CHS 17:44	28%	8%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107	5h 00m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	6h 09m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174	5h 36m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 20:51 → CHS 22:07DL 1663	6h 43m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON