Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4751 at 20:45, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4751 Southwest	HOU 20:45	CMH 00:21	29%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 38m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:08 → DAL 08:19WN 4	51m Dallas	DAL 09:10 → CMH 12:35WN 2576	4h 27m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 17:25 → CMH 19:03DL 2786	7h 23m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 20:31 → CMH 22:10DL 1501	6h 46m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:03 → CMH 23:40DL 1459	5h 23m	86%	66%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	3h 36m Dallas	DAL 20:46 → CMH 00:13 +1WN 2303	7h 13m	99%	63%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:37 → CMH 21:19AA 1348	7h 33m	92%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON