Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4013 at 19:54, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4013 Southwest	HOU 19:54	COS 21:14	28%	10%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Colorado Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Colorado Springs is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:08 → DAL 08:19WN 4	1h 46m Dallas	DAL 10:05 → COS 11:00WN 1974	4h 52m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:30 → COS 12:32DL 2427	7h 32m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	3h 50m Dallas	DAL 21:00 → COS 22:04WN 2163	7h 04m	100%	68%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → COS 14:42AA 1170	6h 13m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → COS 21:07DL 971	7h 43m	93%	66%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:27 → COS 18:34AA 6267 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	92%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON