Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4242 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 4242 HOU 05:35 → DAL 06:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 54 HOU 20:32 → DAL 21:47 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4242 Southwest	HOU 05:35	DAL 06:48	6%	2%	7.7%	no record
WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:08	DAL 08:19	7%	1%	1.9%	94%
WN 8 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:58	DAL 09:11	7%	2%	1.9%	88%
WN 10 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:43	DAL 09:56	10%	2%	1.5%	97%
WN 30 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:38	DAL 14:53	16%	4%	1.2%	76%
WN 26 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:30	DAL 13:40	17%	3%	1.3%	85%
WN 40 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:00	DAL 17:10	22%	5%	1.3%	75%
WN 34 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	DAL 15:50	24%	5%	1.3%	80%
WN 62 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 21:50	DAL 23:03	25%	6%	1.1%	81%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:05	DAL 20:19	25%	7%	1.1%	75%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:32	DAL 21:47	26%	6%	1.1%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON