Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2606 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2606 HOU 06:16 → DEN 08:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2037 HOU 17:15 → DEN 19:36 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2606 Southwest	HOU 06:16	DEN 08:38	5%	2%	1.9%	no record
WN 2035 Southwest	HOU 08:11	DEN 10:32	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1689 Southwest	HOU 12:16	DEN 13:41	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2039 Southwest	HOU 23:24	DEN 00:53	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4007 Southwest	HOU 19:30	DEN 21:52	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2379 Southwest	HOU 14:36	DEN 16:57	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2037 Southwest	HOU 17:15	DEN 19:36	33%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON