Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3729 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3729 HOU 06:11 → DFW 07:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 9754 HOU 17:03 → DFW 18:34 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3729 Envoy	HOU 06:11	DFW 07:46	12%	7%	6.3%	no record
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 09:29	DFW 10:46	18%	6%	2.1%	94%worse than usual
OO 4924 SkyWest	HOU 11:34	DFW 13:07	20%	12%	2.3%	no record
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 12:46	DFW 14:09	26%	12%	2.4%	74%
OO 6252 SkyWest	HOU 18:21	DFW 19:57	31%	12%	3.2%	no record
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 20:19	DFW 21:36	31%	6%	2.2%	56%
AA 9754 American	HOU 17:03	DFW 18:34	41%	11%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON