tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2529 at 17:35, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2529 Southwest HOU 17:35 ECP 19:29 22% 7% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 4h 48m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053 7h 15m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 6h 20m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494 6h 22m 95% 74%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40 3h 25m Dallas DAL 20:35 → ECP 22:37WN 493 6h 37m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:46AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:31 → ECP 14:37AA 2052 5h 08m 91% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON