tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 1h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 21m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 6h 41m 91% 62%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 6h 14m 93% 61%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527 7h 05m 93% 59%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:06 → EWR 16:45AA 813 6h 16m 83% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 5h 30m 74% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON