Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3361 at 20:30, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3361 Southwest	HOU 20:30	JAX 23:48	28%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 00m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → JAX 17:56DL 2440	6h 16m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:58 → JAX 21:13DL 2265	5h 49m	93%	64%
American Details →	HOU 09:29 → DFW 10:45AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:46 → JAX 16:20AA 1472	5h 51m	91%	61%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:44 → JAX 19:22AA 1460	5h 36m	81%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:33 → JAX 22:49DL 2315	4h 32m	74%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON