Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2054 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2054 HOU 06:05 → LAS 07:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2058 HOU 16:50 → LAS 18:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2054 Southwest	HOU 06:05	LAS 07:16	8%	2%	2.5%	no record
WN 1776 Southwest	HOU 08:10	LAS 09:25	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1170 Southwest	HOU 11:51	LAS 13:01	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2060 Southwest	HOU 22:35	LAS 23:48	33%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2059 Southwest	HOU 18:20	LAS 19:30	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 4389 Southwest	HOU 14:36	LAS 15:46	37%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 2058 Southwest	HOU 16:50	LAS 18:00	37%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON